Technology Sector Expertise
National has built a robust banking practice across the massive technology industry, including in exponentially growing sectors like software, internet apps, social media, hardware, data mining platforms and fin tech, as well as large crossover segments like 3D printing, self-driving cars and the Internet of Things (IoT). Our banking team’s capabilities center on capital raising activities, primarily through private placements for early stage companies, as well as investment funds and SPVs dedicated to well-known tech “unicorns,” both in primary and secondary markets.
While we sometimes displace traditional VC investors, we also co-invest alongside them to support the development, market penetration and adoption of promising technologies.
Technology Sector Coverage
Technology research coverage at National focuses on sub-sectors such as software as a service (SaaS), the Internet of Things (IoT), and other unique opportunities in tech. The technology analyst team looks for companies with unique products, a growing market opportunity, expanding market share and recurring revenues. All types of valuation methodologies are used, with a consistent eye toward profitability.
AzurRx BioPharma, Inc. (AZRX: Buy, $9 PT)
June 11, 2019– We are initiating coverage of AzurRx BioPharma, Inc. with a Buy rating and a 1-year target price of $9, which is supported by a DCF analysis using a 30% discount rate and a 5 multiple of the terminal value for the projected 2030 EBITDA of $470 million, calculated using an annual MS1819 cost of $18,000 in the US, consistent with the price of the market dominating pig derived pancreatic enzyme replacement therapies (PERTs). We base our valuation on US sales from MS1819 in exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI) associated with cystic fibrosis (CF) and chronic pancreatitis (CP), with any ex-US commercial success from MS1819, or any commercial success from the early stage beta-lactamase program, serving as upside to our valuation.
I.D. Systems, Inc. (IDSY: Buy, $10 PT)
August 2, 2019– IDSY reported 2Q:19 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.01 on revenue of $16.3 million, which compared to our estimates for $0.07 on $14.5 million revenue. Gross margin came in below our estimate, although we expect the revenue mix will likely improve gross margin in 2H:19.
Identiv, Inc. (INVE: Buy, $8 PT)
August 9, 2019– INVE reported 2Q:19 revenue of $22.2 million, adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 million, and Non-GAAP
EPS of $0.01, which compared to our estimates for $22.4 million, $2.0 million, and $0.01
respectively. Software revenue grew 47% year over year to 12% of the total mix, supporting gross
margin expansion to 44.4% (from 40.2%).
InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC: Buy, $96 PT)
October 3, 2019– IDCC issued guidance yesterday for revenue of $71-$74 million and a bump in expenses with the addition of Technicolor’s R&I engineering group. We lowered our 3Q:19 revenue estimate to $73.0 million (from $76.9 million) and our Non-GAAP EPS estimate to $0.09 (from $0.34); we also lowered the full year EPS estimate to $1.06 (from $1.54).
MTBC, Inc. (MTBC: Buy, $6 PT)
October 10, 2019– MTBC provides RCM services for small to mid-sized medical practices supported by low cost operations in Pakistan. A lean U.S. team in suburban New Jersey heads the enterprise and drives the M&A effort, with the majority of operations in Pakistan at approximately 10% the cost of the U.S. EHR and PM are included in the competitively priced RCM, creating stickier customer engagements.
Inseego Corp. (INSG: Buy, $5.50 PT from $6)
August 7, 2019– We maintain a BUY rating and lower our price target to $5.50 (from $6.00) based on 17x our 2022
EBITDA estimate and applying an 11% discount rate. We switched to the longer-term valuation
method as near term investments in converting the 5G pipeline to revenue likely understate the
longer-term profit potential and value of the business.
Kopin Corporation (KOPN: Buy, $2.00 PT)
August 8, 2019– KOPN reported a 2Q:19 Non-GAAP loss of $0.03 on revenue of $9.1 million, which compared to our
estimates for an $0.08 loss on $7.1 million of revenue. The company recognized $4.2 million of license
and royalty revenue, of which approximately $3.5 million was generated from a transaction with
Nano Dimension Ltd. (NNDM: Buy, $1.80 PT)
February 4, 2019– On Friday Nano Dimension announced that it raised much needed cash through a public offering. The company raised at least $12 million and could raise as much as $36.6 million with the overallotment, the warrants, and rights that are attached to the shares are exercised.
OneSpan (OSPN: Buy, $23 PT)
July 26, 2019–We maintain a BUY rating and $23 price target based on 3.0x EV/Sales (2020), a premium to the
historical forward 1.9x, due to the revenue mix shift to software which we think typically draws a
Progress Software Corp. (PRGS: Buy, $50 PT)
September 27– PRGS reported 3Q:F19 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.75 on GAAP revenue of $106.7 million, which compared to our estimates for $0.66 on $101.7 million respectively. Purchase accounting limited GAAP revenue recognition by $8.8 million in the quarter.
Ribbon Communications (RBBN: Buy, $8.5PT)
August 1, 2019– RBBN reported 2Q:19 results last night of $0.14 Non-GAAP EPS on $145.4 million of revenue,
which compared to our estimate for $0.15 of Non-GAAP EPS on $153.8 million of Non-GAAP
revenue. The company ended its practice of adding purchase accounting adjustments back
to Non-GAAP revenue in 2Q:19, reducing reported Non-GAAP revenue by an estimated $1.5
million and Non-GAAP EPS by about $0.01.
Resonant, Inc. (RESN: Buy, $6.30 PT)
August 7, 2019– RESN reported 2Q:19 revenue of $63,000 and adjusted EBITDA of -$5.9 million, which
compared to our estimates for $0.2 million revenue and a $5.5 million loss. At this stage of
commercial development, this shortfall versus our estimate is not particularly meaningful, as
progress against market development is a more useful indicator.
ShotSpotter Inc. (SSTI: Neutral, $44 PT)
August 7, 2019– SSTI reported 2Q:19 GAAP EPS of $0.03 per share on revenue of $10.3 million, which
compared to our estimates $0.01 on $10.8 million of revenue. The company added 25 net
new miles to its gunshot detection network, which compares to 12 in 1Q:19, 61 in 2Q:18 and
24 in 4Q:18. Operating expenses of $5.7 million compared to our $6.3 million estimate.
Sonim Corp. (SONM: Buy, $9 PT from $17)
September 10, 2019– Sonim announced an update to guidance this morning, now pointing to flat revenue, a $15 million GAAP loss, and a $5 million Non-GAAP EBITDA loss; these compare to guidance issued July 24 for $169-$176 million revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $8.5-$10.6 million. We lowered our 2019 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates to $135.2 million (from $176.7 million) and -$6.6 million (from $6.9 million) respectively, and 2020 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates to $162.3 million (from $220.9 million) and $1.6 million (from $16.1 million) respectively.
Xperi Corporation (XPER: Buy, $33 PT from $36)
August 7, 2019– XPER reported 2Q:19 billings of $92.3 million and billings-based non-GAAP EPS of $0.68, compared to
our estimates for $91.7 million and $0.44, respectively. Guidance was for $88-$92 million of billings.
Operating expenses were below our estimates. Full year billings guidance of $395-$415 was unchanged.
RigNet Inc (RNET: Buy, $19 PT
October 16, 2019–Managed Communications & Value Added Offerings
- Mostly recurring revenues, we expect demand tailwind from improved productivity and safety to remote energy and other customers.
- The profitable and fast growing Apps & IoT offerings is a key differentiator, competitive advantage and hidden value.
- We expect a shift to positive FCF going forward.
ATN International (ATNI: Buy, $67 PT
October 16, 2019–Proven Record in Capital Allocation; Telecom and Solar Opportunities
- A disciplined, LT investment approach through a portfolio of telecom and solar investments supports our positive view.
- International Telecom should benefit from improved networks, a recovery in U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI), Guyana oil finds, and share gains from a weak competitor.
- New ventures and India solar represent attractive LT growth opportunities. A new AT&T contract should help stabilize the U.S. Telecom segment.
- Initiate with Buy rating & $67 PT based on 8x our 2020E adjusted EBITDA
Agilysys, Inc.(AGYS: Buy, $35 PT
October 16, 2019–Large Hospitality Opportunity, Executing Towards Sustained Profitability & Growth
- AGYS is transforming into a profitable and faster growing company. Recurring revenues, now over 50% of sales, should grow even faster with new SaaS products.
- An Indian Development center spurs new features and products, which along with new customer focus should accelerate sales.
- We project low double digit top line growth and longer time margins comparable to large enterprise software companies, especially as SaaS offerings grow.